CARRYING CAPACITY AND THE IMPORTANCE OF LAND

His Excellency Governor of Aruba,

The Honorable President of Parliament,

Your Excellency Acting Prime Minister,

Madam chair of the Aruba Chamber of Commerce and Industry,

Distinguished Guests,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Friends,

Thank you for inviting me to speak with you this evening.

It is with a great deal of pleasure that I come before you tonight to share some of my thoughts about Aruba’s future and in particular, how this island could look twenty or so years from now.

My comments are based on looking back over the past twenty years that my colleagues and I at Sasaki Associates, have had the honor to be associated with this island and its peoples and to play some small part in its physical development. I will look back and use the hindsight of the past to look forward into the next twenty years to try and determine what they could mean to you as individuals and for Aruba as a whole.

My comments this evening can be organized into three parts:

1. First: the framework within which my comments about Aruba are made. About the difference between a viable future, where personal wealth and status are paramount, versus a future that places greater importance on cultural identity and personal meaning.

2. Second: some possible scenarios that Aruba could take as the economy continues to develop and mature. I will briefly outline three possible futures for the island, related to its spatial growth and physical development.

3. Third: the importance of land, Aruba’s second most valuable resource. I will outline some thoughts on how to maximize and manage this scarce and finite resource, for all Arubans as well as for visitors, both now and perhaps more importantly, in the future for your children and their children.

Personal Wealth and Status Versus Cultural Identity and Meaning

Globalization is changing the way we think about ourselves and the way we do business. Big is no longer better, and small, (if aware and coordinated), is faster and more nimble. Size is important, but becoming less so. Speed is better and becoming more important every day. Informed speed is the best. These attributes are becoming more and more of a reality as the beneficial business relationships are person-to-person and region-to-region. The nation state is less important than the city-state as business expands within the global marketplace. Saskia Sassan of Princeton University, who has far more insightful things to say about globalization and the power of regions than I have, comments that mayors of large cities, governors and transnational corporations have more power in the global marketplace than the Presidents of very large countries. I think this is true.

As long as you have something of value to offer, you can have a measure of control over the future, no matter how global or how distant the market is.

Mobility, inexpensive air transport, and increasing of leisure time have made places like Aruba boom.

This success is becoming the thing we need to manage before it overwhelms us. Before we exceed our “carrying capacity” and no longer have anything of value to offer. Before we destroy the very attraction that made us successful in the first place. In the case of Aruba, land and its unique environment are central to that success.

The standard way in which a location or place is measured in order to determine its success is to compare it (including what we do there, i.e. invest or build) with the needs or expectations of the community and or the client in relation to the potential of the project and the market. More simply put, it is the relationship between place, community, and the market that determines the viability of an endeavor.

This makes sense if your emphasis is on the financial return over the short term, and that the land and its environment have an “infinite” capacity to absorb human use. In other words, when land is in sufficient supply to be treated as a commodity, rather than as a resource. This attitude is changing globally and in the case of Aruba, it is a scarce resource that has definite limits. As I said earlier, it is your second most precious resource, the first being you, its people.

However, for Aruba, I would suggest a different emphasis. Instead of only place, community and market in determining viability, it is rather history, culture, and environment that should be the dominant focus when making decisions about how to grow and progress. I suggest this emphasis because in my opinion it is Arubans’ identity, not only its viability that will sustain you in the near future and be your competitive edge, (your something of value) for years to come. It will hopefully also have greater meaning to future generations of Aruban’s than only rising standards of living where consumption is the prime measure of success or objective.

In my opinion, it is not only Aruba’s economic viability that is important, but also it is understanding and enhancing your identity that will give you the competitive edge to sustain your quality of life. It will also make Aruba an attractive place to be for future generations.

When it comes to development, physical development, I am a firm believer in quality rather than quantity. I have seen what mass tourism has done to many beautiful places around the world, from Ayia Napa in Cyprus to Hurgada in Egypt to parts of Portugal, Spain, France, and to many places in the Caribbean.

These places were, at the time, instrumental in developing the tourist industry for those regions. However, they became overbuilt, the land around unmanaged, and the facilities themselves under-maintained because it was cheaper to build new hotels and associated development on new, pristine locations elsewhere. Land was a commodity, to be bought and sold, as if there was an infinite supply. We know that this attitude is changing, although not as fast as I would like.

Islands, however, do not have that possibility, especially small islands like Aruba. They are environmentally constrained and physically limited. As I have said, land is finite on Aruba.

Three Scenarios for Spatial Growth and Development

Let me now shift to the second part of my talk, and describe three possible futures for the spatial growth and physical development of Aruba.

1. Market Responsive Growth

The first model for the growth of Aruba is based on market responsive growth. Its growth is designed to respond to market forces with as little interference from regulation as possible. In fact, the role of government in this model is to assist and stimulate the private sector to capitalize on market forces as much as possible. Infrastructure, low-cost loans and tax breaks are some of the instruments of government while the business of business is to capture all it can out of the market’s potential, usually on a first-cost basis when it comes to the environment.

In the market responsive growth model, Aruba in twenty years or so can be seen as a combination of Disney Land and Cancun with some Las Vegas thrown in. The number of visitors to the island would increase from over one million up to perhaps two million visitors a year, maybe more. In terms of the “carrying capacity” of the island this will be accommodated by importing more labor, developing more hotel and timeshare accommodations, and doubling the amount of land that is used up in roads, housing, support services and other uses. At current ratios of visitors to residents, the permanent population of Aruba would be about 275,000 and each person would have on average of just over 700 m² of land per resident. This is down from over 2000 m² per resident you currently have.

The pressure on people and the land would be enormous, but as long as visitors came and the effort was viable, the technology and human incentive to achieve this exists. It has been done in other places and could probably be done in Aruba. I am not recommending that this is what you should do, what you do is up to you. The risks are great and the track record of restoring overbuilt tourist areas is not good and comes at a very high cost. In the end you have to ask yourself, for whom is one creating all this capacity? It cannot be for the next generation because all of us know that the market is going to change dramatically over the next twenty years as the so-called “baby boom” matures and starts to move differently, less adventurous, less sun, closer to home. I am told by people far more informed than myself that the year 2020 will be a threshold for the markets as we know them, because that is about the time when the bulk of the “baby boom” start to reduce their mobility.

2. Steady-State of Balanced Growth

In the second model, Aruba remains very much as it is today only it is better. In this model, which I call a “steady-state” or “balanced growth,” Aruba will eventually become a kind of wonderful heritage park, an island museum where the business of Arubans is to keep things neat and tidy, efficient and well maintained, a kind of Caribbean Switzerland. Marginal growth will replace the inevitable decay and obsolescence that occur over time. The primary focus would be on managing and maintaining what you have for a relatively fixed number of visitors, with progress measured by daily spend and not number of visitors.

The future in this model is not negative, but it is somewhat limiting for the next generation of Arubans. Many islands are striving to be just like this. Bermuda in many ways comes close to this model in terms of its tourist industry (excluding the reinsurance sector) from its economic make-up. Hawaii is moving towards this model. A colleague of mine in Hawaii has recently shifted the focus of his architectural practice from new buildings to renovations and interior design as a result of the shift in the kind of development. It is a matter of managing and maintaining the current status as opposed to building more capacity. For a number of years, the government of the Republic of Cyprus has been encouraging the private sector to develop more upscale resorts rather than to target the same markets that they have been so successful with but who are now competing with lower cost destinations such as Turkey and the Red Sea resort areas.

So even if you try to stay the same, competition and changing demographics will force you to respond and change.

3. Diversified and Strategic Growth

In the third model of development for Aruba, tourism is seen as the only one, although in the beginning, the most important sector of a diversified and strategic growth model. In this model, Aruba is the best of the past, the best of the present and the best of the future.

In order to present the third model for the development of Aruba it is useful to review the economic history of the island to illustrate the importance of preserving history for the future.

If one were to look carefully at Aruba and its spatial character, six distinct land use patterns can be observed, each reflecting a different period of the island’s past, and each contributing the overall character and identity of Aruba.

1. First: the initial settlers using the island as their base as they moved between the mainland and the other islands. Their drawings and tools are with us today.

2. Second: the island as a paddock for horses and perhaps other animals used by the militia of different European nations as they colonized this part of the world.

3. Third: the quest for gold and other precious minerals. The remnants of the structures are testimony to the mad passion for which humans have sought after this metal both on Aruba and elsewhere in remote parts of the globe.

4. Fourth: the first and only agricultural phase of the island’s history, and perhaps for me, the one that has left the most visible legacy on the land, the Aruban aloe. I am pleased to read that Mr. Cornelis Eman, the founder of Aruba Aloe Balm NV and the management of this company, want to make this plant and its amazing properties synonymous with Aruba and everything good this island represents.

5. Fifth: oil refining, an essential resource and at the time a major employer that brought many different people to Aruba and contributed towards making this small nation of great people.

6. Six: tourism and some trade, which we all know about and which if we do not manage its consequences will overwhelm all of us.

This brings us to where we are now. Each of these economic phases have left their pattern on the land and if Aruba’s identity is important, then making this rich historical legacy apparent to both residents and visitors alike is essential. It will also be more difficult to achieve as so-called “undeveloped/leftover” land is absorbed into housing, hotels, restaurants, roads and infrastructure. Through this process, open land also becomes more, so to speak, “valuable”. (In both open as well as land for development.)

So what then is the next phase, the seventh transformation to the Aruban landscape, and how can it be characterized?

In this third model of Aruban development, where diversified strategic growth is the objective, the focus should be on capital-intensive, labor-efficient, highly-skilled, technology-driven uses such as services, and the transshipment and/or assembly of high value, time sensitive goods. This should be done within the context of the tourist industry where the quality of the environment and the attractiveness of the place will attract both tourists and visitors to do business as well as to relax when visiting Aruba. Others are more capable at crafting the political and economic framework of this threesome of tourism, trade and technology, than I am. What I can tell you is that how Aruba looks is important, if not essential, if the best of the best are going to stay and the best of the best are going to visit.

Let me give some physical dimension to what I am talking about. As a physical planner who started out his professional career as an architect, I am most interested in the physical aspect, the built consequences of growth, and how I think it will affect both the human, as well as the natural landscape of Aruba.

There are many dimensions to the human and natural landscape. Let me mention a few as an introduction to the relationship between people and land. The whole of Aruba can be classified into several land use categories. For instance,

· Natural open space

· Recreational open space

· Developed land or urbanized areas

· Roads and infrastructure

· Support services (airport, power plant, solid waste dumps, etc.)

· And then the “so called” Undeveloped areas or open areas

All this comes to a total of about 200 km² or just a bit more than 77 square miles.

No matter what the strategy, land will have to be managed more closely and with a longer-term sense of its value. This is not easy in a system where the value of land is calculated as if it were a commodity. On Aruba, land is not a commodity, it is a diminishing, finite resource. This means that social values and cultural meaning have to be included in the pricing mechanism when assessing what is the best use for a piece of land, in other words, when determining its value. Some economists would argue that this is what happens when, in an open market and given all the other assumptions we were taught in Economics 101, a willing buyer agrees with a willing seller on the price of something. What we have learned since then is that the social and cultural value of land is far more complex than its simple economic value and that in situations where the resource is finite, it is impossible to establish the real economic value because it is impossible to replace it or to go and get more of it. There simply isn’t any more. Ownership of land no longer means you have control of a disposable commodity and the relationship becomes more that of a trustee, with responsibility to future generations in mind as well.

How To Maximize and Manage the Second Most Valuable Resource in Aruba: The Environment

How does one manage the land? It is made up of many individual interests and collective concerns. There are always competing interests for the use of land. The powerful and connected seem to be able to control certain pieces of land which most of us can only dream of using. What is a good land use decision? What is a responsible use of one’s own property? What is the responsible use of public land? I would suggest that responsible land use decisions are made when the following six conditions exist:

1. Land use changes must be decided in an open and transparent setting.

2. Changes in use are measured against a framework of overall land use and circulation, which has been established through a process of dialogue and debate.

3. Local matters are decided locally and national matters are discussed in a national forum, your size is advantage here.

4. A process for discussing and deciding on how exceptions to the framework can be made.

5. An ongoing planning effort exists where the framework of overall land use and circulation is updated every three to five years within a legal framework: Zoning.

6. Incentives for responsible use as well as fines for irresponsible abuse.

How can this be implemented? How can this be done? Aruba has undertaken similar efforts at critical points in its past. This has happened at two important moments in the country’s past, in the mid 1980’s and in the mid 1990’s. It would seem it is time now to revisit and discuss some of the same issues again and to discuss what kind of a physical future Arubans would like to live in.

I am not going to outline this evening how to do this, it will take the concerted effort of many people to prepare this spatial vision of Aruba. However, let me outline a few characteristics of how the landscape, both human made and natural could be planned.

Let me mention four aspects (there are of course many others, so forgive me if I don’t mention the one closest to your heart or business interest):

1. One needs to know what one has and what one needs, so detailed current mapping of the existing land use should be available and alternative projections for future land needs prepared. This needs to be done in order to quantify the present and to assess the possible impacts of the future.

2. The basis of an overall physical vision plan for the island should be prepared. This should be done within a macroeconomic framework related to government policies and objectives and coordinated with local needs.

a. Business from a market perspective.

b. Government from a policy/regulation perspective.

c. Civic Groups from a social and community perspective.

3. A comprehensive land use and circulation framework for the island should be updated and coordinated with the plans for local communities. This effort should be documented into a national land use framework plan. Part of this effort should be to establish land use and zoning guidelines.

4. Infrastructure (primarily roads) and utilities (water, waste water and power) must be provided within this land use and circulation framework. The most effective method of guiding development is by a combination of incentives (such as the provision of good infrastructure) and regulation (zoning and building regulations). It is no coincidence that the highest land values anywhere in the world usually occur where land use and zoning regulations are clear and managed effectively.

New technologies such as solar and wind, which Aruba has in abundant renewable supply, must be utilized.

Aruba is now at such a milestone again, when the next chapter in its history needs to be defined. This time I think that the need to do so is more compelling than ever. The stakes are the future of its spatial pattern and the physical identity of the island. This is directly related to who you are and how you see yourself. It also has a direct bearing on how you are perceived and whether or not the visitors will return. I would suggest that the seven physical areas to focus on are:

1. The natural and protected areas;

2. the resort areas;

3. Where you live, the residential areas;

4. Oranjestad, as a place to work, live and play;

5. The waterfront in and around Oranjestad;

6. The manufacturing, service and trade zone between the airport and the diesel/power plant; and

7. Any area I have left out and which is important to you.

These areas should be planned within a vision of Aruba that relates to what kind of island this generation of Arubans want to leave to its children and to their children.

Each area would then establish how it would want to develop and define itself, within an overall framework, a physical framework that all Arubans have had a say in creating. In my opinion, the most important matter to focus on is what kind of place do you want Aruba to be? For residents and visitors, both present and future.

You can leave it entirely to market forces or you can coordinate yourselves to select from those forces what is in the best overall interest of Arubans, for now, for the foreseeable future, as well as for future generations.

As John McHale so succinctly put it:

“The future of the future is in the present.”

The time is now… the choice is yours.

Thank you.